Iranian authorities are considering the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Afghani migrants across its western borders with neighboring states. This move forms part of what officials describe as a inevitably more aggressive and unexpected approach following the bombing of its nuclear sites and the EU restoration of United Nations penalties.
Multi-Pronged Offensive Includes Growth of Missile Development
The broad strategy includes expansion of its missile programme, bolstering air defense systems, suspending cooperation with the UN weapons inspectorate and, on 18 October, blocking the establishment of a UN committee to oversee the administration of the restored penalties. Officials remain opposed to resuming negotiations with the United States, believing the talks would fail.
Refugee Threat Echoes Erdoğan's Statement
The warning about migrant movement in a western direction as well as the east resembles the warning issued by the leader of Turkey, President Erdoğan, who threatened to send countless Syrian migrants into European nations.
Iran has at times been host to up to six million Afghani migrants, but human rights groups state that in the current year, a million Afghan refugees have been sent back to their home country, having fled either due to poverty or Taliban rule.
Amnesty claimed the mass expulsions were increased in the wake of Israel’s 12 June attacks on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. It estimates half a million Afghan nationals were deported across the frontier after the attacks.
Document Nullification for Migrants
Until March 2025, millions of Afghan nationals were allowed to legally reside temporarily in Iran by obtaining a “headcount” document. Holders of this permit were eligible for restricted benefits, including access to public health services, schooling, work authorisation, banking access and ability to enter into housing contracts. But the authorities nullified these headcount documents.
The Iranian authorities have provided varying numbers about the number of Afghan refugees in the country, but it is thought a minimum of 2 million reside without legal status. The UN high commissioner for refugees forecasts that as many as four million Afghans may be sent back to their homeland this year.
Comprehensive Plan of Reconstruction Under Way
A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is under way in Iran, involving debates about the tools it possesses to safeguard its interests after the joint strikes by Israel and the US in June. Tehran has called back its ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK for discussions at the foreign ministry in Tehran about the crisis.
Officials are leaning against leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, partly since the substantive steps were already implemented to halt collaboration with the UN nuclear weapons inspectorate.
Diplomatic Proposals and International Response
Tehran representatives state that in discussions with the French at the UN general assembly, Tehran proposed to permit nuclear monitors to inspect the damaged facility at Natanz, and also offered to disclose its reserves of enriched nuclear material within 45 days. As a counteroffer, Iran wanted the threat of the return of UN sanctions to be lifted permanently, instead of a temporary suspension, the original French-led offer.
Iran claims the United States declined to participate with these proposals, part of what Tehran believes an increasingly unstable and amateurish American diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either uninformed or duplicitous. Witkoff, for instance was sending the Iranian representatives traveling to the United Nations information about a discussion he planned to conduct with Iranian officials, but he canceled the talks altogether.
Forthcoming Negotiation Conflict and Moscow's Position
In the next probable diplomatic clash with the US, analysts predict that on 18 October Moscow, as current president of the security council, will exercise its authority as a permanent member to block the establishment of a UN committee to monitor and oversee the sanctions the EU reimposed last week.
Moscow and Beijing have sent letters to the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to state EU nations lacked the authority to snap the sanctions back as they did on 28 September, since Europe in their view had exited in the nuclear deal, and had not exhausted the conflict resolution process.
The impasse makes it likely that certain nations may not adhere with the enforcement of the UN sanctions. Japan, Canada and Turkey have already started to reimpose the sanctions, but countries in the Russian and Chinese orbit will refuse. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, issued a presidential decree ordering asset freezes on Iranian individuals and entities linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and major state banks.
Impact of Sanctions on Iranian Economy
Authorities state the most damaging sanctions on the country are the current American restrictions, and in contrast the restored UN sanctions dating back from from 2006-10 are relatively narrow, since they do not cover Iran's petroleum industry but instead targeted financial blocks, weapon restrictions and prohibitions on missile sales.
But Tehran accepts that even the partial return of UN sanctions is affecting economic confidence and on the exchange rate. The price of the dollar in Iran's open market has set a new record.
