Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
